MADISON, Wis. — A newly released poll shows just how tight the races for Senate and Governor are in Wisconsin.
The Spectrum News/Siena College Poll surveyed 651 likely voters in the Badger state, diving into subjects including President Biden’s approval rating, the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and who voters would choose in the upcoming November election. The margin of error for the poll was +/- 4.5%.
Of those polled, 32% identified as Democrats, 27% said they were Republicans and 35% said they were either independent or voted for a third party.
On the race for governor
Of those surveyed, 49% said they would vote to re-elect Tony Evers as governor, compared to 44% who said they would vote for Tim Michels. Additionally, 5% of respondents said they still did not know who they would vote for or were undecided, 1% said they would not vote for governor, and 1% said they would vote for a candidate other than Evers or Michels.
Evers saw the greatest amount of support from voters in the Dane County and Milwaukee areas. A total of 78% of respondents from Dane County said they would vote for the incumbent governor, and 66% of respondents from the Milwaukee area said they would do the same.
A total of 48% of respondents from southern Wisconsin said they would vote for Evers, compared to 45% who sided with Michels. Michels did carry the BOW (Brown, Outagamie, Winnebago) and WOW (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) counties by a wide margin, 53% to 37%.
The governor also leads Michels in voters from three of four age brackets, with 50% of voters aged 18-34, 52% aged 35-49, and 55% aged 65 and older siding with Evers, compared to 41%, 40%, and 39% for Michels respectively. The Republican challenger fared better with older voters, with 50% of respondents aged 50-64 sided with Michels compared to 45% who said they would vote for Evers.
On the race for Senate
The margin tightens when looking at the U.S. Senate race between Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson. Among likely voters, Barnes leads, 48% to 47%, but that difference is well within the margin of error of 4.5%. In addition, Barnes did not poll as strongly in Dane County and Milwaukee as Evers. A total of 65% of Dane County respondents and 63% of Milwaukee respondents said they would vote for Barnes.
Like Michels, Johnson holds a strong lead in the BOW and WOW counties and in the north, and he only trails slightly in southern Wisconsin, 47% to 48%. Barnes holds the lead among the youngest and oldest voters, but Johnson leads among those in the 50-64 age bracket and the 35-49 bracket’s vote is effectively a toss-up.
Michels, Johnson struggle in favorability
In terms of voter perception of the candidates, 32% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Michels, compared to 43% who had an unfavorable opinion. In comparison, 47% had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 43% unfavorable.
In the U.S. Senate race, 37% had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 50% who had an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent Senator. Meanwhile, 41% of those who responded to the poll had a favorable opinion of Barnes, compared to 39% unfavorable.
Most of the poll’s respondents have an unfavorable opinion of President Joe Biden. A total of 52% of respondents, including 61% of independents, said they did not have a favorable opinion of the president, while 44% said they had a favorable opinion of him. Additionally, 42% said they approved of how he is handling his job and 54% said they disapproved.
On other issues
On the topic of abortion, 62% of respondents said they opposed or strongly opposed the overturning of Roe v. Wade, compared to 31% who said they supported or strongly supported the Supreme Court’s decision. Of those polled, 72% said that Wisconsin should have a new law addressing abortion in the state, while 22% said the 1849 law that only allows “therapeutic abortions” and makes no exceptions for victims of rape and/or incest.
If new legislation was proposed, 42% of respondents said they would support a new law that banned abortion in some fashion, including 5% who said they supported a complete ban. Meanwhile, 51% said they would support a law allowing some abortions, including 22% who said the procedure should be allowed up to and beyond the 20th week of pregnancy.
On the topic of gun control, 87% of respondents said they somewhat or strongly supported a mandate on universal background checks, including 74% who said they strongly supported it, while 54% said they somewhat or strongly supported a ban on assault-style weapons, including 44% who strongly supported the ban.
You can find full results for the Spectrum/Siena poll here.
You can get more election news and analysis from News 3 Now here.
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