MADISON, Wis. — The latest numbers from the Marquette Law School poll conducted in October show a continued tight race for governor, while incumbent U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson continues to outperform his challenger, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
Among people who say they are likely to vote in November, incumbent Gov. Tony Evers leads challenger Tim Michels 47%-46%, which is a small tightening from the September poll that showed Evers ahead 47%-44%. Both results were within the 4.8% margin of error, meaning the race remains essentially at a tie.
The story is different on the U.S. Senate side, however, where Johnson leads Barnes 52%-46% among likely voters — a significant lead that is outside the margin of error. In the September poll, the race was essentially tied with a 49%-48% Johnson lead.
This is very different from the August poll that was conducted right after the primary, which saw Barnes with a 7-point lead over Johnson.
UW-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky said this does mean that Johnson has some momentum, but a lot can still happen between now and November.
“While Ron Johnson clearly has the momentum, it’s not enough momentum to effectively conclude the race right now,” he said. “Mandela Barnes still has time to turn this thing around.”
He does not see the same momentum in the governor’s race however.
“The race for governor is a total coin flip at this point,” Chergosky said. “I don’t think either candidate has a clear advantage based on the data I’m seeing and based on the polling numbers that have been made public.”
“It’s going to be quite a dramatic four weeks to the finish line in the race for governor,” he added.
Evers and Barnes saw more favorable results among all registered voters who were polled, with the governor being supported by 46% to Michels’ 41% and Barnes pulling into a 47%-47% tie with Johnson.
Chergosky said that those late-deciding voters could make a significant difference in both races.
He also pointed to another data point — candidates’ favorability — as another indication in the race.
“[Barnes] has been pummeled with millions and millions of dollars of ads focusing on crime, public safety and policing — and those negative ads have had a significant effect on this race,” Chergosky said.
“We’ve seen that Mandela Barnes is now viewed more negatively than before, and we’ve seen Ron Johnson’s numbers climb in the polls,” he added, “so the Republicans have been quite effective in their campaign.”
WATCH BELOW: Charles Franklin breaks down latest Marquette University Law School poll
The poll was conducted between Oct. 3 and Oct. 9, surveying a total of 801 registered voters, 652 of whom said they were likely to vote in November. Of those who were polled, 45% identified as being a Republican or leaning Republican, 44% identified as being a Democrat or leaning Democrat, and 9% said they were independents.
The poll’s timing included the first U.S. Senate debate between Johnson and Barnes on Oct. 7 and before the first — and as of now, the only — debate between Evers and Michels, scheduled for Oct. 14.
You can find more results from the poll here.
Jaymes Langrehr contributed to this story.
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