MADISON, Wis. — It would be a tough sell for Democrats: spend crucial time and money in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District where they are expected to lose by five points.
That is the dilemma for Democrats in western Wisconsin, however, who are continuing to campaign despite the House Majority PAC pulling its ad spending from the race. The national group helps elect Democratic congressional candidates and was expected to spend nearly $1.7 million before pulling the last of its spending in late October.
“It’s a fascinating study in how the incentives for the House of Representatives are different than the incentives for the state of Wisconsin,” said University of Wisconsin-La Crosse political science professor Anthony Chergosky.
National groups like the House Majority PAC are likely to make more of an impact by spending in closer races. According to a forecast by FiveThirtyEight, Republican Derrick Van Orden is expected to win 85 out of 100 simulated elections, with generally a 5-point victory over Democrat Brad Pfaff.
This leads to a “catch-22” for Democrats in the 3rd Congressional District — put their efforts toward having a Democrat represent them in Congress, or having a Democratic House write legislation.
That does not deter some local organizers, however, who say they are largely focused on running a locally-focused campaign.
“I don’t think the grassroots here in the 3rd (Congressional District) was really expecting like a ton of support,” said William Garcia, chair of the La Crosse County Democrats. “Of course, we would love help from the national stuff. We also weren’t expecting it, so it’s not like we’re discouraged not to have it.”
He said he does see support coming from the state party to help out with the campaign, which Chergosky highlighted as important. Western Wisconsin is a relatively swing-y part of the state and a crucial place for Democrats to drive turnout.
“If Democrats are not turning out the vote in western Wisconsin, then that could have really important implications for the outcomes of the race for governor and U.S. Senate,” Chergosky said.
Democrats do not have to win the 3rd Congressional District to still win some of these statewide races. The governor’s race remains tied according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, so even a two-point swing for Democrats on Tuesday yields a win for both incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and Van Orden.
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